Werk Nick Rating®

Nick ratings have become an integral part of the decision-making process in the mating and purchasing of Thoroughbreds. Most breeders recognize that an affinity or compatibility can exist between two Thoroughbred sire lines, such that, when crossed, those lines yielded a greater proportion of superior runners than when either one of them are crossed with other lines. Great breeders, from Federico Tesio (whose most important legacy to the Thoroughbred breed was Nearco, whom he bred specifically with a nick in mind) to present-day breeders around the world have relied on observed nicks to help guide their breeding plans and decisions.

In order to identify nicks in a systematic way, WTC developed a method based on sire-line analysis. The effectiveness of this method is demonstrated by the immensely popular Lukas At Auction, written by Joe Bagan. Ongoing studies by WTC show that nearly 30% of the Thoroughbred population are the product of highly successful nicks (“A” rated nicks) while over 70% of stakes winners are “A” rated nicks. With overwhelming results like these, the Werk Nick Rating® should become an important part of your selection process.

These nick ratings are based on the percentage by which a certain sire line, when combined with a certain broodmare sire line, exceeds its performance, on average, with other lines. To make the rating easier to understand, we have developed a scale which converts the percentage to a letter grade ranging from “F” to “A.” In some cases, the rating may be as high as “A+,” “A++,” or in rare cases an “A+++.” We emphasize that an “A” rated nick does not guarantee success, nor does an “F” rated nick guarantee failure. An “A” rated nick indicates that a far greater percentage of stakes winners has resulted from that cross than expected. An “F” rated nick indicates that the number of stakes winners resulting from a cross is at least 50% below expectations. This does not mean that there cannot be success or will not be success from such a mating in the future. It does mean that in all the experience of the last 20 years of winners of open stakes races, that type of mating has had a lack of success as measured by stakes winner production.

The overall evaluation of Thoroughbred purchases and matings is a complex proposition, and to be successful requires the use of every tool available. Breeders and buyers of Thoroughbreds gain an important advantage when they use the Werk Nick Rating® to plan matings or evaluate proposed purchases. The Werk Nick Rating® enables breeders and buyers to avoid crosses that have had little or no success in the past. At the same time, it enables them to duplicate successful sire-line crosses, thus dramatically increasing their chances for success.

For a practical businessperson seeking a sound return on money invested, it makes no sense to buck measurably unfavorable odds. Breeding a superior racehorse is already a difficult enough proposition. The Werk Nick Rating® allows you to see into the future by looking into the past — and thereby to avoid mating patterns that have failed.

What is a Werk Nick Rating®?

Over the years, Werk Nick Ratings® have proven to be an invaluable tool in the stallion selection process and in identifying horses for purchase.

Affinity between sire-lines was long ago observed by some of the world’s best Thoroughbred breeders. Today we are able to quantify what was once only a subjective judgment based on the observations of a relatively small population.

Werk Nick Ratings® are essentially that objective measurement of the success, or lack thereof, of sire-line crosses. Success, in this case, being the winners of unrestricted stakes races with a purse of at least $50,000. With our unique database, containing the pedigrees of all such winners since 1980 (over 30,000 winners), we are able to easily measure what sire-line crosses have succeeded in producing stakes winners and compare those numbers with the stakes-winning population on the whole.

Often a sire line may appear to be successful with a particular broodmare sire line. However, if the level of success is no better than that line’s success with the entire population, then there is not a true nick.

In order to codify the Nick Ratings for easier use, a letter-grade scale was developed. As in the scholastic setting, the scale ranges from A through F with A+, A++, and even an A+++ in rare cases. The percentages shown below the deviation from the norm that has been observed by the sire-line cross in question. On this scale, −15% to +15% (C) is considered average, meaning that the sire-line cross has yielded results that are statistically no better and no worse than what would be expected with the entire population.

It must be stressed that a below-“Average” Werk Nick Rating® does not guarantee or even predict failure. It means only that, to date, the particular sire-line cross has fallen at least 16% short of what would be expected. Nicks can and do change over time.

Consequently, an above-Average Nick Rating must be kept in proper perspective as there are other factors that must be considered when arranging a mating or selecting a horse for purchase.

The Werk Nick Rating® Scale is shown below:

Werk Nick Rating®	Potential	Variant
A+++	Best of the Best
A++	Superior	+1501
A+	Superb	+500 to +1500
A	Outstanding	+150 to +499
B+	Very Good	+100 to +149
B	Good	+50 to +99
C+	Acceptable	+16 to +49
C	Average	−15 to +15
D+	Weak	−16 to −34
D	Poor	−35 to −49
F	Unsuccessful	−50
0 SW	Zero Stakes Winners	0 SW

The A Triple Plus

History

The Werk Nick Rating® was launched in 1988 with much of it being done by hand. With the assistance of Roger Lyons, the system was completely automated in 1992. Since that time, the Werk Nick Rating® and its letter grades (A++, A+, A, B+, B, C+, C, D+, D, & F) have grown in popularity and have maintained its position as the industry standard.

We took the next step in 2004 when we launched www.enicks.com. The website was an immediate success. Users could now match their mares and receive the Werk Nick Rating® to enrolled stallions for FREE, compliments of stallion farms who sponsored their stallions in the eNicks program.

By 2007, over 600 stallions had joined the eNicks program. eNicks is now international with sponsored stallions from 10 countries. In 2008, over 6.9 million Werk Nick Ratings® were viewed by breeders. We currently have nearly 10,000 registered users.

The A+++

In April 2009, we came up with the idea of developing an elite nick rating — one that actually took into account the quality of the stakes winners of a sire-line cross. These are crosses that are more likely to replicate high performance and more likely to transfer down the sire lines involved.

After almost four months and through the efforts of the WTC staff headed by Roger Lyons, the Triple Plus was born.

The Triple Plus is more than a nick rating in the sense that it's comprised of functions relating to:

Quantity of SWs from a cross
Concentrations of G1 and G2 winners among those SWs
Continuity of stakes production along the sire and broodmare sire lines
Special consideration of the relations of sire and broodmare sire to their respective sire lines

Test Survey

After months of changes and testing, we were convinced that we had come up with the most powerful nick rating in the business.

But, before we launched, Roger suggested we run the Triple Plus rating with the ENTIRE 2005 Keeneland September sale catalogue. The results were incredible. The sale contained 281 yearlings with current Triple Plus ratings. Now five-year-olds, that select group consists of at least 80.8% starters, at least 61.2% winners, at least 19.6% stakes horses, 13.2% stakes winners, 10.3% graded/group stakes horses, 8.9% graded/group stakes winners, 6.4% G1–2 stakes winners, and 3.6% G1 stakes winners.

Among the runners captured by the Triple Plus rating in that sale are G1 winners Any Given Saturday, Curlin, Daaher, Great Hunter, Intangaroo, Mrs. Lindsay, Rags to Riches, Red Giant, Scat Daddy, and Street Boss.

That small group of 281 Triple Plus-rated yearlings — only 5.5% of the catalogue — included 37% of the G1 winners that came out of the sale. In fact, over 20% of the winners of G1 and G2 races run since 2004 worldwide are bred from Triple Plus crosses.

Needless to say, we knew we had our elite rating.

Final Thoughts

It's important to remember only crosses that otherwise qualify for an A, A+, or A++ rating can qualify for the Triple Plus rating. As always, one should not strain to breed a mare to a stallion that yields a Triple Plus cross just to have one. A certain region and stud fee range may not offer a stallion that both suits the mare as an individual and yields a Triple Plus. While Triple Pluses are fairly easy to find for certain broodmare sire lines, others may not have Triple Plus crosses at all. After all, actual crosses representing the Triple Plus rating are quite rare. Roughly 4–5% of the racing population is bred that way, and that's a fairly select population, relative to “the general population” of foals. But, if you can identify a stallion that suits the mare in all other respects and is a Triple Plus cross, then you will have the most reliable assurance you can get anywhere that the cross is supported by a genuine affinity between the two sire lines.

Authorized Sources

The Industry Standard Werk Nick Rating®

The effectiveness of the Werk Nick Rating® as a measure of the success of sire-line crosses has made it the industry standard in pedigree evaluation. This translates into a commercial advantage for stallion farms that are advising their clients on the basis of WTC products which enable them to distribute Werk Nick Ratings® for their stallions.

Breeder, Beware of Imitations

Imitation may be the highest form of flattery, but it can also cause confusion and result in misinformation. Some pedigree advisors, either independently or on behalf of stallion operators, are assigning their own letter grades to pedigrees either for the purpose of reflecting their personal evaluation of pedigrees or for the promotion of certain stallions. Therefore, we want to advise breeders of imitations, which more often than not differ — sometimes radically — from the letter grades assigned by WTC’s Werk Nick Rating® system.

The Werk Nick Rating® is the result of a sophisticated analysis of crosses, an analysis that has been developed over many years of research and testing. The rating for any given cross is subject to change as new stakes winners are added to the system. As a breeder, you need to be sure that the letter grade you have been given for a certain cross is an authorized, up-to-date Werk Nick Rating®. Otherwise, you could be the victim of misleading or downright incorrect information given to you for strictly commercial reasons.

There are two ways that a stallion farm or pedigree advisor can be authorized to distribute Werk Nick Ratings®:

Message to Stallion Managers: Nicks Change

Stallion managers should keep in mind that, as a young sire line begins to yield stakes production, new favorable ratings emerge quickly — as happened, for example, in the case of Storm Cat and his sons. But, as the sons of a major sire such as Storm Cat begin to go their own divergent ways, some in the direction of certain broodmare sire lines and others in the direction of other broodmare sire lines, many of the nick ratings for the Storm Cat line as a whole will eventually level off and, as the population of stakes winners increases, decline in accordance with the principle of regression to the mean.

This suggests yet another reason why stallion managers should update their books on at least an annual basis: to take advantage of these rapidly emerging nicks. Stallion managers who have purchased WTC’s Stallion Compatibility Analysis in the past should check to make sure the stallion is listed here. If he is not listed, it could be because the book is out of date. Or it could be the result of an inadvertent omission on our part. Call WTC immediately to arrange to have your stallion added to the list: (510) 490-1111.